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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 41

Washington Commanders 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to BAL 7, impetus ends at BAL 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-M.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.90 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model