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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

WAS
41.7%
BAL
58.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.202 vs Jayden Daniels (WAS) +0.284 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

WAS 23
–
BAL 27
Projected margin: BAL by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

WAS

Tyler Owens S Out Shin
Brian Robinson RB Questionable Knee
Jordan Magee LB Questionable Knee
Efe Obada DE Questionable Tibia

BAL

Malik Harrison LB Out Groin
Arthur Maulet CB Out Knee
Broderick Washington DE Out Knee
Rasheen Ali RB Questionable Neck
Deonte Harty WR Questionable Knee
Sala Aumavae-Laulu G Questionable Back
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Ankle
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 23
–
BAL 30

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:14 FG WAS (9:14) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – BAL 0
  • Q1 03:50 FG BAL (3:50) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. WAS 3 – BAL 3
  • Q2 07:59 TD BAL (7:59) 22-D.Henry right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – BAL 9
  • Q2 04:21 TD WAS (4:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – BAL 10
  • Q2 00:57 TD BAL (:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – BAL 16
  • Q3 12:50 FG WAS (12:50) 3-A.Seibert 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 13 – BAL 17
  • Q3 08:22 FG BAL (8:22) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. WAS 13 – BAL 20
  • Q3 02:12 TD BAL (2:12) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-93-J.Allen was injured during the play. WAS 13 – BAL 26
  • Q4 12:16 TD WAS (12:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – BAL 27
  • Q4 06:23 FG BAL (6:23) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. WAS 20 – BAL 30
  • Q4 02:52 FG WAS (2:52) 3-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 23 – BAL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 18 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 87%

    (9:14) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%

    (3:50) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:30) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to BAL 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 3-D.Harty pushed ob at BAL 20 for 4 yards (87-J.Bates).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:11) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to WAS 40, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-O.Zaccheaus pushed ob at 50 for 10 yards (49-C.Board).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 52%

    (13:01) 10-T.Way punts 34 yards to BAL 7, impetus ends at BAL 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-M.Walker.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 63%

    (12:50) 3-A.Seibert 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (8:22) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 44%

    (6:59) 10-T.Way punts 38 yards to BAL 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-32-M.Walker.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 91%

    (6:23) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 78%

    (2:52) 3-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.