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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 37

Washington Commanders 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 3-A.Seibert 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.07 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP