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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model