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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 24

Washington Commanders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 3-A.Seibert 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model