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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.51 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP