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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 30

Washington Commanders 20 – Baltimore Ravens 30

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 3-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.39 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model