4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 27

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.05 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model