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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 90

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(:11) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to WAS 40, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-O.Zaccheaus pushed ob at 50 for 10 yards (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 90, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model