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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 15-J.McMillan left end pushed ob at BAL 25 for 11 yards (2-N.Wiggins, 0-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.97 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model