Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BAL offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- TB offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- QB edge to BAL: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.163 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.244 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
BAL
TB
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:34 TD TB (10:34) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – TB 6
- Q1 00:05 FG TB (:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill. BAL 0 – TB 10
- Q2 12:33 TD BAL (12:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – TB 10
- Q2 04:30 TD BAL (4:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – TB 10
- Q2 00:07 FG BAL (:07) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 17 – TB 10
- Q3 12:25 FG BAL (12:25) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 20 – TB 10
- Q3 07:32 TD BAL (7:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 26 – TB 10
- Q3 02:57 TD BAL (2:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 33 – TB 10
- Q4 11:30 TD TB (11:30) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 34 – TB 16
- Q4 06:38 TD BAL (6:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 22-D.Henry for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 40 – TB 18
- Q4 03:49 TD TB (3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Irving up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 41 – TB 24
- Q4 02:06 TD TB (2:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-R.White for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 41 – TB 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 65%
(11:10) 15-J.McMillan left end pushed ob at BAL 25 for 11 yards (2-N.Wiggins, 0-R.Smith).
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Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%
(:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.
-
Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(:07) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 70%
(12:25) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 37Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 63%
(8:27) 4-C.McLaughlin 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.
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Q3 TB 4th & 14 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%
(5:05) 16-T.Gill punts 41 yards to BAL 8, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace. Penalty on BAL-88-C.Kolar, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(2:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 48 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 34%
(1:43) 11-J.Stout punts 30 yards to TB 18, Center-46-N.Moore. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 25 for 7 yards (81-D.Walker).