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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:07) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.87 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.93 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model