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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 34

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.15 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model