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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model