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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP