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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to CIN 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 44 for 23 yards (38-T.Brown; 39-K.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model