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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CIN
73.3%
CLE
26.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.234 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.177 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.193 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: +0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 27
–
CLE 18
Projected margin: CIN by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CIN

D.J. Ivey CB Questionable Knee

CLE

Jerome Ford RB Out Hamstring
Ronnie Hickman S Out Ankle
Nick Chubb RB Questionable Knee
Jordan Hicks LB Questionable Elbow
Nyheim Miller-Hines RB Questionable Knee
Ethan Pocic C Questionable Knee
Juan Thornhill S Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 21
–
CLE 14

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 15:00 TD CIN 7-D.Hopkins kicks 65 yards from CLE 35 to CIN 0. 15-C.Jones for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 00:59 TD CLE (:59) 59-W.Reid and 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – CLE 6
  • Q3 08:00 TD CIN (8:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 1-J.Chase for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – CLE 6
  • Q3 01:35 TD CIN (1:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 5-T.Higgins for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – CLE 6
  • Q4 01:32 TD CLE (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 21 – CLE 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CIN 20, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 21 for 1 yard (31-M.Ford).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:39) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to CLE 26, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden to CLE 37 for 11 yards (27-J.Battle).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 76%

    (6:32) 7-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 63%

    (3:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CLE 42 for -5 yards (93-S.Harris).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to CIN 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:23) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to CIN 21, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 44 for 23 yards (38-T.Brown; 39-K.Hudson).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:07) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CIN 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 20 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:34) 8-R.Rehkow punts 48 yards to CLE 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden pushed ob at CLE 22 for 6 yards (27-J.Battle).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 99%

    (:59) 59-W.Reid and 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 23%

    (:37) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to CLE 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden pushed ob at CLE 20 for 5 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 68%

    (10:53) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short right to 24-N.Chubb [24-V.Bell].

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 55%

    (5:27) 8-R.Rehkow punts 29 yards to CLE 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-26-T.Anderson.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:37) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to CIN 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 35 for 9 yards (50-R.Sunahara, 43-M.Diabate). PENALTY on CLE-37-Da.Bell, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 35.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to CIN 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 17 for 6 yards (84-G.Swaim).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to CLE 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden pushed ob at CLE 19 for 7 yards (26-T.Anderson).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 51 yards to CIN 3, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-38-T.Brown.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to CLE 38, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden to CIN 48 for 14 yards (87-T.Hudson).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 12 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%

    (3:48) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.