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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CIN 29, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 15-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model