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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(:37) 8-R.Rehkow punts 38 yards to CLE 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden pushed ob at CLE 20 for 5 yards (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.89 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 53, worth -1.56 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model