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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 35

Cleveland Browns 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 17-D.Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete short right to 24-N.Chubb [24-V.Bell].

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.87 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model