Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to CIN 26, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 35 for 9 yards (50-R.Sunahara, 43-M.Diabate). PENALTY on CLE-37-Da.Bell, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.67 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model