Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

(:02) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to CIN 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 15-C.Jones to CIN 17 for 6 yards (84-G.Swaim).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model