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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to CLE 38, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 16-J.Darden to CIN 48 for 14 yards (87-T.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.51 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model