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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 32

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.27 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model