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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 37

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CLE 42 for -5 yards (93-S.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model