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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 8-R.Rehkow punts 46 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 16-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.61 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model