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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 13

Denver Broncos 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model