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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Thursday 2024-10-17 · 20:15 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

DEN
36.0%
NO
64.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.308 vs Bo Nix (DEN) -0.187 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Spencer Rattler (NO) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18
–
NO 22
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

DEN

Alex Palczewski T Out Ankle
Patrick Surtain CB Out Concussion
Baron Browning LB Questionable Foot
Damarri Mathis CB Questionable Ankle
Mike McGlinchey T Questionable Knee

NO

Chris Olave WR Out Concussion
Cesar Ruiz G Out Knee
Rashid Shaheed WR Out Knee
Pete Werner LB Out Hamstring
Derek Carr QB Doubtful Oblique
Taysom Hill TE Doubtful Rib
Khalen Saunders DT Questionable Back
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 33
–
NO 10

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:32 FG DEN (5:32) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 13:27 FG DEN (13:27) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 07:33 TD DEN (7:33) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 12 – NO 0
  • Q2 02:00 FG NO (2:00) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. DEN 13 – NO 3
  • Q2 00:21 FG DEN (:21) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 16 – NO 3
  • Q3 10:27 FG DEN (10:27) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 19 – NO 3
  • Q3 05:58 TD DEN (5:58) 33-J.Williams right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 25 – NO 3
  • Q4 04:19 TD DEN (4:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler sacked at DEN 48 for -14 yards (29-J.McMillian). FUMBLES (29-J.McMillian) [29-J.McMillian], RECOVERED by DEN-55-C.Barton at DEN 48. 55-C.Barton for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 32 – NO 3
  • Q4 01:25 TD NO (1:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Haener pass short middle to 11-C.Wilson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 33 – NO 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 59%

    (12:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to NO 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 32%

    (10:42) 43-M.Hayball punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 84%

    (5:32) 3-W.Lutz 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (13:27) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (12:23) 43-M.Hayball punts 42 yards to DEN 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-M.Mims to DEN 14 for 1 yard (36-R.Payton).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:27) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to NO 42 for 12 yards (21-R.Moss; 12-K.Alexander).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%

    (:21) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:21) 43-M.Hayball punts 45 yards to DEN 22, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-M.Mims to DEN 34 for 12 yards (24-J.Abram; 48-J.Gray).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (10:27) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:03) 43-M.Hayball punts 40 yards to DEN 31, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-D.Jackson.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 20 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:03) 43-M.Hayball punts 43 yards to DEN 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 16.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to NO 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 20 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:41) 43-M.Hayball punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NO 39, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-J.Jackson ran ob at DEN 48 for 13 yards (9-R.Dixon).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 54%

    (7:31) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to DEN 40 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 66%

    (5:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 11-C.Wilson to DEN 34 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:11) (No Huddle) 18-S.Rattler right guard to NO 47 for 1 yard (40-J.Strnad).