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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 0 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 43-M.Hayball punts 42 yards to DEN 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-M.Mims to DEN 14 for 1 yard (36-R.Payton).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP