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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 0 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.04 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model