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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 41

Denver Broncos 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to NO 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 80-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.76 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.05 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.27 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model