Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 3 – Denver Broncos 19

(9:03) 43-M.Hayball punts 40 yards to DEN 31, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-D.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model