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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 43-M.Hayball punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.09 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP