4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 3 – Denver Broncos 26

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 43-M.Hayball punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.19 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model