Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 85

Denver Broncos 26 – New Orleans Saints 3

(8:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NO 39, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 80-J.Jackson ran ob at DEN 48 for 13 yards (9-R.Dixon).

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.17 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model