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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 3 – Denver Broncos 26

What Actually Happened

(7:31) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to DEN 40 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.33 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model