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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 3 – Denver Broncos 26

What Actually Happened

(5:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 11-C.Wilson to DEN 34 for 4 yards (21-R.Moss).

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.21 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model