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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 3 – Denver Broncos 33

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (No Huddle) 18-S.Rattler right guard to NO 47 for 1 yard (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.84 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -2.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model