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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 14 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to HOU 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-D.King to HOU 20 for 2 yards (42-M.Orzech).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.88 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -2.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model