HOU @ GB — 4th & Data

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Green Bay Packers

5-2 HC Matt LaFleur

Sunday 2024-10-20 · 13:00 ET Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

HOU

31.2%

68.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

GB offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
GB defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
Jordan Love (GB): +0.226 EPA/dropback in prior starts
HOU defense: -0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22 15–29

–

GB 28 21–35

Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

HOU

Azeez Al-Shaair LB Out Knee

Kamari Lassiter CB Out Shoulder

Henry To'oTo'o LB Out Concussion

Jimmie Ward S Out Groin

Robert Woods WR Out Foot

Steven Sims WR Questionable Back

Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Shoulder

GB

Devonte Wyatt DT Out Ankle

Dontayvion Wicks WR Questionable Shoulder

Colby Wooden DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 22

–

GB 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:51 FG HOU (11:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 3 – GB 0
Q2 13:20 TD GB (13:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 85-T.Kraft for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 3 – GB 6
Q2 11:56 TD HOU (11:56) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – GB 7
Q2 08:57 TD GB (8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – GB 13
Q2 04:34 FG HOU (4:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 13 – GB 14
Q2 01:16 TD HOU (1:16) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – GB 14
Q3 07:31 TD GB (7:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 8-J.Jacobs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – GB 20
Q4 01:48 FG HOU (1:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 22 – GB 21
Q4 00:03 FG GB (:03) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. HOU 22 – GB 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

(11:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP

p(convert) 64%

(9:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to HOU 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 25-D.King.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 49%

(5:14) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to GB 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 HOU 4th & 9 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(12:41) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to GB 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 26-C.Ballentine MUFFS catch, touched at GB 11, RECOVERED by HOU-29-M.Stewart at GB 11.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 34

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 73%

(4:34) 15-K.Fairbairn 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to HOU 18, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-D.King to HOU 20 for 2 yards (42-M.Orzech).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 HOU 4th & 13 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(12:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to GB 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 29 for 8 yards (34-T.Hairston).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(6:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 66 yards to GB -1, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-J.Reed to GB 4 for 5 yards (32-K.Hollman).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 87

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP

p(convert) 76%

(4:50) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to HOU 25, impetus ends at HOU 28, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-D.King ran ob at HOU 25 for no gain.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 HOU 4th & 17 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 27%

(1:13) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to GB 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 GB 4th & 12 at the 87

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(14:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 66 yards to HOU 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-T.Dell to HOU 32 for 11 yards (45-Er.Wilson).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(10:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(8:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to HOU 25, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-T.Dell to HOU 38 for 13 yards (39-Z.Anderson).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 17 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

(1:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown →

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