Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 73

Houston Texans 19 – Green Bay Packers 14

(12:58) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to GB 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-K.Nixon pushed ob at GB 29 for 8 yards (34-T.Hairston).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model