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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 87

Green Bay Packers 21 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 19-D.Whelan punts 62 yards to HOU 25, impetus ends at HOU 28, Center-42-M.Orzech. 25-D.King ran ob at HOU 25 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.45 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 87, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP