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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 5

Houston Texans 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. PENALTY on GB-55-K.Enagbare, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP