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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 53

Houston Texans 19 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to GB 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model