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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 87

Green Bay Packers 21 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 66 yards to HOU 21, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-T.Dell to HOU 32 for 11 yards (45-Er.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.10 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 87, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model