Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 86

Green Bay Packers 21 – Houston Texans 19

(8:21) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to HOU 25, Center-42-M.Orzech. 3-T.Dell to HOU 38 for 13 yards (39-Z.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 86, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model