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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 17

Houston Texans 19 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.78 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model