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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 44

Houston Texans 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 6-T.Townsend punts 36 yards to GB 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model