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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to KC 15, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-M.Hardman to SF 30 for 55 yards (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP