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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

KC
40.4%
SF
59.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.182 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC on 3 more days rest than SF
  • SF defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
SF 26
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

KC

Michael Danna DE Out Pectoral
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Questionable Hamstring

SF

Jauan Jennings WR Out Hip
Jake Moody K Out Right Ankle
Matthew Wright K Out Shoulder
Ricky Pearsall WR Questionable Chest
Kevin Givens DT Questionable Groin
Darrell Luter CB Questionable Pelvis

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 28
–
SF 18

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:11 FG SF (1:11) 41-A.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. KC 0 – SF 3
  • Q2 11:28 TD KC (11:28) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – SF 3
  • Q2 06:53 TD KC (6:53) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – SF 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG SF (:04) 41-A.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. KC 14 – SF 6
  • Q3 10:32 TD SF (10:32) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – SF 12
  • Q4 14:17 TD KC (14:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-27-J.Brown, Defensive Holding, declined. KC 20 – SF 12
  • Q4 03:16 TD KC (3:16) 17-M.Hardman left end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-24-S.Moore, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on SF-2-D.Lenoir, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. KC 27 – SF 12
  • Q4 01:14 TD SF (1:14) 13-B.Purdy up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 28 – SF 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:37) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to KC 15, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (9:14) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 21-J.Hicks. 21-J.Hicks up the middle to KC 45 for 1 yard (92-J.Elliott; 27-J.Brown).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:18) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to KC 8, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:13) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to SF 41, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 66%

    (1:11) 41-A.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (10:36) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to KC 15, Center-46-T.Pepper. 17-M.Hardman to SF 30 for 55 yards (30-G.Odum).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:08) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to KC 14, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:55) 14-M.Araiza punts 64 yards to SF 9, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-J.Cowing to SF 22 for 13 yards (21-J.Hicks). PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (:04) 41-A.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 96%

    (12:24) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to KC 13 for 1 yard (69-M.Pennel).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:37) 14-M.Araiza punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (14:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-27-J.Brown, Defensive Holding, declined.